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Search event

Will Trump’s new tariffs push the UK into recession in 2026?

33%
67%

President Donald Trump has announced additional tariffs on UK exports to the United States — 10% from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1. According to Capital Economics, these measures could cut UK GDP by 0.3–0.75%, a significant shock for an economy currently growing just 0.2–0.3% per quarter. Analysts warn that if the tariff hike is implemented suddenly and without exemptions, it could be enough to trigger a recession, especially amid broader U.S.–EU trade tensions. UK officials hope diplomacy can soften Washington’s stance, but the risk remains that trade policy escalates faster than economic growth can absorb.

Economics
Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by September 30, 2026, official UK data (ONS or Bank of England) confirms the UK has entered a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), and major economic reporting attributes tariffs imposed by the United States as a material contributing factor. Otherwise — No.

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