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Will the U.S. impose a new round of energy sanctions on Russia over Ukraine by early 2026?

33%
67%

According to Bloomberg, Washington is preparing additional sanctions against Russia if Moscow rejects a revised peace agreement with Ukraine, with proposed measures targeting Russia’s energy sector, oil traders, and vessels linked to the so-called “shadow fleet.” U.S. officials have already discussed these options with European partners, while bipartisan legislation in the Senate could further mandate sanctions on entities involved in importing Russian oil, making renewed economic pressure increasingly likely if negotiations stall.

Geopolitics
Politics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if, on or before March 31, 2026, the U.S. government officially announces or enacts a new sanctions package against Russia explicitly tied to its refusal of a peace agreement with Ukraine, confirmed by U.S. Treasury or White House statements, congressional action, or reporting from Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, or similar major outlets. Otherwise — No.

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