
Will Ukraine hold a nationwide referendum on a peace deal in 2026?
As U.S.-backed peace talks gained momentum in late 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled that any final settlement with Russia may require public approval through a referendum. Kyiv says most elements of a proposed 20-point plan are broadly aligned with Washington, but the territorial issue remains unresolved — making a plebiscite politically sensitive and constitutionally complex. At the same time, legal constraints under martial law, funding shortages, and security risks cast doubt on whether such a vote is feasible in the near term.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before March 31, 2026, Ukraine formally announces, schedules, or conducts a nationwide referendum specifically aimed at approving a peace agreement or framework with Russia, as confirmed by official government decisions or major international media reporting. Otherwise — No.
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