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Will NATO materially expand its military presence in Greenland in 2026?

25%

75%

Denmark has announced an expansion of its military presence in Greenland amid rising Arctic tensions, with support from NATO partners. Sweden has already confirmed troop deployments, while Germany, France, and Norway have signaled increased involvement through forces and joint exercises. The question is whether this translates into a concrete, near-term buildup.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by March 31, 2026, NATO members confirm a measurable expansion of forces or assets in or around Greenland (e.g., additional troops, aircraft, naval deployments, or new exercises beyond routine rotations), as verified by official government or NATO statements or major international media. Otherwise — No.

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