Step 1

Choose Where You Stand

Select an event from politics, economics, technology, sports, or culture.

Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

You can place your prediction only once and in one direction.

Step 2

Confirm Your Entry

Select your stake — from 1 to 100 USDC.

To participate, simply register and top up your balance with USDC — a stable digital currency pegged to the US dollar.

Once the event begins or concludes, predictions are automatically closed.

Step 3

Get Your Reward

After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

All submitted predictions form a shared pool.

A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will the United States conduct a military strike in Somalia by April 19, 2026?

25%

75%

The United States has carried out periodic airstrikes in Somalia in coordination with Somali authorities, primarily targeting militant groups such as Al-Shabaab. These operations are typically framed as counterterrorism efforts aimed at degrading operational capabilities and preventing planned attacks.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by April 19, 2026, the United States conducts and publicly acknowledges (or is confirmed by major international media to have conducted) at least one kinetic military strike—such as an airstrike, drone strike, or missile strike—within the sovereign territory of Somalia. Otherwise — “No.”

Comments

U

No comments yet

Similar Events

Will the Venezuela crisis materially impact Kazakhstan’s oil sector in 2026?

64%

36%

Will the U.S. launch a military strike against Iran by March 31, 2026?

40%

60%

Will the United States, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates conduct direct military strikes against Iran following the recent cross-border attacks?

60%

40%

Will the UK conduct additional military strikes from Cyprus amid rising tensions with Iran?

60%

40%

Will Ukraine hold a nationwide referendum on a peace deal in 2026?

40%

60%

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by March 31, 2026?

60%

40%

Will NATO materially expand its military presence in Greenland in 2026?

25%

75%

Will Ali Khamenei leave his post as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

25%

75%

Will unrest in Iran have a direct political or economic impact on Kazakhstan?

67%

33%

Will the U.S. impose a new round of energy sanctions on Russia over Ukraine by early 2026?

33%

67%

Will a potential regime change in Venezuela trigger a sharp oil-price shock for Russia by early 2026?

33%

67%

Will Brent crude oil surpass $82 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions?

67%

33%

Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31, 2026?

33%

67%

Will Kazakhstan and Turkey sign a long-term agreement to increase oil exports via the BTC pipeline before Q2 2026?

50%

50%

Will the U.S. begin selling Venezuelan oil to Russia or China in 2026?

20%

80%