
Will the U.S. launch a military strike against Iran by March 31, 2026?
Rising unrest in Iran has prompted increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Donald Trump and the U.S. administration. The White House has publicly stated that military options—including airstrikes—remain “on the table” if Tehran’s actions threaten U.S. interests, while also imposing a 25% tariff on nations doing business with Iran as part of broader pressure on the regime. However, senior U.S. officials have urged diplomacy and negotiations before resorting to force, and talks with Iranian representatives are reportedly under consideration.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if by March 31, 2026, the United States conducts a confirmed military strike on Iranian territory or clearly Iranian strategic assets (e.g., infrastructure, military bases, nuclear facilities), as verified by official U.S. government statements or major international media. Otherwise — No.
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