Will a potential regime change in Venezuela trigger a sharp oil-price shock for Russia by early 2026?
Russian analysts are increasingly warning that the possible removal of Nicolás Maduro could unleash significant new Venezuelan oil supply onto global markets. According to Bild, fears in Moscow center on the prospect that U.S. companies—backed by signals from Donald Trump—could rapidly move into Venezuela, driving oil prices lower and intensifying pressure on Russia’s budget, which is heavily dependent on energy revenues. With Urals crude already trading around $50–52 per barrel, well below Russia’s $59 budget assumption for 2026, further declines could deepen fiscal deficits. Some Russian economists argue Venezuela could become a “template” for future Western pressure on oil-dependent states, combining sanctions with regime change to weaken export revenues over time.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before March 31, 2026, at least one of the following occurs: Venezuelan crude exports rise by ≥500,000 barrels per day from 2025 levels following political change, and Russia’s Urals crude price averages below $50 per barrel for at least 30 consecutive days, as reported by major international media or energy data providers (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, IEA). Otherwise — No.
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