Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by March 31, 2026?
As the war continues into 2025–2026, the question of territorial concessions remains one of the most sensitive and decisive issues shaping any potential peace settlement. While Ukrainian leadership has consistently rejected the idea of ceding sovereign territory, prolonged military pressure, battlefield realities, and evolving positions among international partners could increase pressure for a negotiated outcome that includes territorial compromises — explicit or de facto. At the same time, domestic politics in Ukraine and security guarantees from the West remain powerful constraints against such a move.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before March 31, 2026, Ukraine’s government formally agrees — through a signed peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or official declaration—to cede, recognize the loss of, or permanently renounce claims to any Ukrainian territory in favor of Russia, as confirmed by official Ukrainian statements or widely reported diplomatic agreements covered by major international media. Otherwise — No.
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