Will the Kazakh tenge really strengthen to 500 per dollar by the end of Q1 2026?

Bank of America has identified Kazakhstan as one of the most attractive frontier markets for 2026, citing three key factors: fiscal consolidation, structural cooling of inflation, and a sharp increase in liquidity in the KZT bond market. Analysts say this rare combination positions the tenge and short-term government bonds among the strongest investment ideas for the year. BofA’s forecast suggests the tenge could strengthen to 500 per dollar by the end of Q1 2026, supported by a disinflationary trend, high real interest rates, and expectations of a rate cut later in the year.