
Will the RUB/USD exchange rate rise to 120 by the end of March 2026?
The ruble remains under pressure from sanctions, constrained capital flows, budget deficits, and heavy state intervention in currency markets. While export revenues, capital controls, and energy prices can provide temporary support, analysts note that fiscal spending, oil price volatility, and geopolitical risks will largely determine the ruble’s trajectory into 2026.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before March 31, 2026, the RUB/USD exchange rate weakens to 120 rubles per U.S. dollar or higher (based on official or widely used market rates), as confirmed by data from the Central Bank of Russia, MOEX, or reporting from Bloomberg, Reuters, or major Russian financial media. Otherwise — No.
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