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Search event

Will China’s real GDP growth exceed the IMF’s latest 5% forecast for 2025?

60%
40%

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its outlook for China’s economy, raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 5.0%, and its 2026 forecast from 4.2% to 4.5%. According to the IMF, the upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected stimulus effects and lower-than-feared export tariffs on Chinese goods. Key points from the IMF’s new assessment: - China’s inflation is expected to rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026 - External demand remains strong due to a weaker real exchange rate - Domestic demand remains soft, with lingering structural imbalances IMF stresses need for deeper reforms, stronger consumption, and scaled-back inefficient industrial support.

Economics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if the IMF’s final published estimate for China’s real GDP growth in 2025 exceeds 5.0%. Otherwise — NO.

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