Will Kazakhstan’s state budget deficit exceed 5% of GDP in 2026?

According to data released by the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s state budget deficit increased by 22.2% in 2025 to 4.4 trillion tenge, up from 3.6 trillion tenge a year earlier. As a share of GDP, the deficit widened from 4.2% to 4.4%, while the non-oil deficit rose to 11.4 trillion tenge. Budget expenditures grew faster than revenues, driven by higher social spending and a 19.2% increase in debt-servicing costs, with total public debt reaching 36.4 trillion tenge by January 1, 2026. Although tax revenues showed strong growth—particularly corporate income tax and VAT—the increase was not sufficient to offset rising expenditures and weaker non-tax income. The government has stated an intention to gradually reduce the deficit toward 0.9% of GDP by 2028, but the near-term outlook depends on economic growth, oil revenues, and fiscal discipline. The uncertainty lies in whether current spending pressures and debt dynamics will push the deficit beyond the 5% of GDP threshold in 2026, or whether revenue growth and budget controls will stabilize fiscal balances.