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Search event

Will U.S. real GDP growth for 2025 ultimately exceed 3%?

75%
25%

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the U.S. economy is on track to grow 3% in real GDP for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected performance, multiple quarters with growth near 4%, and a robust holiday spending season. Early data shows: - Q1 2025: –0.6% - Q2 2025: +3.8% Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate (Q3): ~3.5%

Economics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if the final U.S. real GDP growth rate for calendar year 2025 exceeds 3.0%, based on the BEA’s final (third) estimate, which is typically published in June of the following year (June 2026). Otherwise — NO.

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