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Search event

Will U.S. crude oil inventories continue declining through Q1 2026?

67%
33%

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell by 1.81 million barrels last week, dropping to 425.7 million barrels, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Energy. The decline was smaller than analysts expected (consensus: –2.3M barrels, Trading Economics). Meanwhile: Gasoline inventories rose by 6.4M barrels (forecast: +2.8M) Distillate inventories rose by 2.5M barrels (forecast: +1.9M) Cushing, Oklahoma storage increased by 308,000 barrels.

Economics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), as reported weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), show a net decline from the level recorded in the final report of 2025 through the last weekly report of Q1 2026. Otherwise — NO.

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