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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

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After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will the U.S. agree to provide Ukraine with formal security guarantees by June 30, 2026?

25%
75%

Amid ongoing debates over long-term support for Ukraine, discussions around potential U.S. security guarantees have intensified, ranging from bilateral commitments to multilateral frameworks short of NATO membership. While officials in the United States and Ukraine continue to signal political backing and military assistance, it remains unclear whether this will translate into explicit, binding security guarantees within a defined timeframe.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if, on or before June 30, 2026, the U.S. government officially announces, signs, or ratifies a formal security guarantee or defense commitment to Ukraine (e.g., a treaty, bilateral security agreement, or binding congressional act), as confirmed by official U.S. or Ukrainian government statements or reporting from major international media (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP). Otherwise — No.

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