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Will Elon Musk move forward with building Tesla’s proposed “Terafab” mega-factory for end-to-end chip production?

60%
40%

Elon Musk has floated a bold idea: a single U.S.-based “Tesla Terafab” that would produce logic chips, memory, and chip packaging under one roof—an end-to-end model no company currently runs at scale. The concept is framed as a hedge against chip shortages over the next 3–4 years and would dramatically reduce Tesla’s dependence on external suppliers. Musk argues future limits on AI and autonomy will be set by chip availability, not software. But he also concedes the project is extraordinarily complex, capital-intensive, and long-dated—more a strategic moonshot than an approved plan.

Technology

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, Tesla officially announces or begins concrete development of a Terafab-like semiconductor facility (e.g., confirmed site, construction start, major capex disclosure, or binding manufacturing partnerships). Otherwise — “No.”

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