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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will the Soyuz launch pad at Baikonur be fully ready for its first launch by the end of winter 2026?

25%
75%

Roscosmos says restoration of the Soyuz launch pad at the Baikonur Cosmodrome is proceeding on schedule, with all required equipment already in place and more than 130 specialists working in shifts. Despite damage sustained during a November 2025 launch, officials state the pad will be fully prepared to receive a rocket by late winter 2026.

Kazakhstan
Technology

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if, on or before February 28, 2026, Roscosmos officially confirms that the Baikonur Soyuz launch pad is fully restored and ready for launch operations, or announces acceptance of the pad for an upcoming Soyuz mission, as verified by Roscosmos statements or reporting from major Russian or international outlets (e.g., TASS, RIA Novosti, Interfax). Otherwise — NO.

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