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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.
Search event

Will China successfully launch the Long March 10 superheavy rocket by mid-2026?

40%
60%

China is advancing its crewed lunar program, with the Long March 10 rocket positioned as a key vehicle for future Moon missions. The launcher is being developed in two versions: a three-stage variant for the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft and lunar lander, and a partially reusable Long March 10A for missions to low Earth orbit and the Tiangong space station. Static fire tests of the first stage have already been completed, and China has reaffirmed its goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030.

Technology

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if, on or before June 30, 2026, China conducts at least one confirmed launch (orbital or suborbital) of the Long March 10 or Long March 10A, as verified by official statements from CASC/CNSA, Xinhua, or reporting from SpaceNews, Reuters, or other major international space outlets. Otherwise — No.

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