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Search event

Will the Federal Reserve raise its policy rate at the September 2026 meeting?

67%
33%

On July 29, 2026 the FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members preferring a quarter-point increase. After that meeting futures pricing implied roughly a 65% probability of a hike in September, driven mainly by energy supply disruptions tied to the conflict with Iran. The next decision is due on September 16, 2026 at 18:00 UTC. This market assesses whether the Committee moves the target range higher at that meeting.

Economics
Finance

Conditions

Resolves YES if the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on September 16, 2026 sets a federal funds target range whose upper bound is above 3.75%. Resolves NO if the range is left unchanged or lowered, or if no statement is published by 23:59 UTC on September 16, 2026. Only the official FOMC statement counts. Economic projections and the dot plot, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, dissenting votes, futures pricing and media forecasts do not count.

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