Will the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate at least once before September 30, 2026?

The US Federal Reserve has maintained an elevated interest rate environment as it continues to manage persistent inflation pressures. In 2026, tariff-driven supply-side shocks and stagflationary dynamics have complicated the Fed's path toward easing monetary policy. Market participants and economists are divided on whether the Fed will deliver a rate cut in the first three quarters of 2026, or maintain the current rate in response to stubborn inflation. The outcome of Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled between now and September 2026 will determine the result. This market resolves Yes if the FOMC announces a reduction — of any size — to the federal funds rate target range at any of its scheduled or emergency meetings before the deadline.