Is Iran becoming the biggest energy winner of the current war?

Despite sanctions and conflict, Iran is increasing oil revenues while Gulf producers face declining output. Higher prices and supply disruptions are boosting Tehran’s earnings, supported by adaptive export networks and stable demand, particularly from China. However, this advantage may not last. It depends on shadow trade, geopolitical tolerance, and continued disruption of competitors. If enforcement tightens or supply normalizes, Iran’s position could weaken. The most realistic scenario is short-term gains for Iran, with long-term sustainability remaining uncertain.