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Search event

Will Kazakh oil exports via the Black Sea remain uninterrupted through December 2025?

Event ended
25%
75%

Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the Black Sea were recently disrupted due to new Russian port restrictions, but shipments have resumed. Will they remain stable through the end of the year?

Geopolitics
Kazakhstan

Conditions

Resolves to Yes if there are no officially confirmed interruptions (halted shipments or port blockades) of Kazakh Black Sea oil exports reported by government or major media between now and Dec 31, 2025. Any confirmed suspension longer than 48h = No.

Results

During 2025, there were officially confirmed interruptions to Kazakh oil exports via the Black Sea lasting longer than 48 hours. Therefore, the market condition was not met.

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