
Will Europe return to sustained economic growth despite persistent deficits and global pressures?
Europe’s old growth model — built on U.S. security guarantees, Chinese demand, Russian energy, and rules-based globalization — is no longer viable. According to The Economist, deficits remain a structural risk, while shifting policies in the U.S. and China continue to unsettle the continent. Still, growth is expected to revive modestly as Europe adapts to a harsher geopolitical and economic landscape.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, official EU or Eurostat data show positive real GDP growth for the euro area in at least three consecutive quarters without a simultaneous increase in aggregate fiscal deficits beyond 2025 levels. Otherwise — No.
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