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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

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Will SpaceX successfully complete a full Starship test flight without losing the upper stage?

40%
60%

During the eighth test flight of the SpaceX Starship, the booster Super Heavy successfully returned and was caught by the launch tower at Starbase. However, the upper stage encountered engine failures and was lost roughly nine minutes after launch. The test followed a similar pattern to the previous flight in January, when the booster recovery succeeded but the upper stage was destroyed during ascent. The rocket system, developed by SpaceX under the leadership of Elon Musk, is intended to become the world’s most powerful launch vehicle and a cornerstone of future lunar and Mars missions. For the eighth test, engineers had already modified fuel lines, engine parameters, and operating temperatures to address issues identified in earlier flights. The company stated it will conduct a detailed investigation together with the Federal Aviation Administration before the next launch. The uncertainty lies in whether SpaceX can resolve the technical problems and achieve a fully successful test flight in which both stages complete their planned mission profile.

Technology

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, SpaceX successfully conducts a Starship test flight in which the Super Heavy booster is recovered and the Starship upper stage completes its planned mission profile without being destroyed or lost, as confirmed by the company or major aerospace reporting. Otherwise — “No.”

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