Will Bitcoin and Ethereum see a net capital inflow from both retail and institutional investors throughout Q1 2026?
After months of macroeconomic uncertainty, the crypto market has shown notable resilience to negative news. According to Wintermute, concerns such as shifting central-bank policies, mixed macro data, and questions surrounding AI-driven capital expenditures are no longer triggering the usual broad risk-off reaction. A sharp $4,000 drop in Bitcoin on December 5 — caused by roughly $2B in cascade liquidations within an hour — highlighted the fragility of the current recovery. Yet, critically, the market absorbed the shock without triggering follow-through selling. Wintermute notes a rare capital-rotation pattern now emerging: simultaneous inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum from retail and institutional investors. Market focus is now fixed on the upcoming December 10 Federal Reserve rate decision, which is expected to shape crypto momentum into early next year.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if at least one major analytics source (CryptoQuant, Glassnode, IntoTheBlock, or institutional-flow reports such as CoinShares) confirms that both Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net positive retail and institutional capital inflows throughout Q1 2026. Otherwise — NO.
Comments