Will the United States and Iran announce an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz before September 12, 2026?
Talks mediated by Oman on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued through mid-August 2026. US officials said on August 4, 2026 that a deal was in sight, while Tehran stated that the strait remains under its control and shipping disruptions in the region persisted. Washington and Tehran have been exchanging messages through intermediaries, and Jared Kushner met regional leaders during the week of August 16, 2026. No agreement has been announced as of August 17, 2026. This market assesses whether both governments publicly confirm one before September 12, 2026.
Conditions
Resolves YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC on September 12, 2026, the government of the United States, through the White House, the Department of State or the Department of the Treasury, and the government of Iran both publicly confirm that an agreement, framework or written understanding covering navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, as reported by Reuters, the Associated Press or Bloomberg. Resolves NO otherwise. An announcement confirmed by only one of the two governments, statements by mediators or third countries alone, draft texts that neither government confirms, a general ceasefire without terms covering the strait, and unattributed reports citing anonymous officials do not count.
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