Will a new US state take formal action against Kalshi or Polymarket before September 15, 2026?
By mid-August 2026 at least eighteen states had moved against prediction market platforms. New York sued Kalshi for about $36 billion on July 31, 2026, a federal judge upheld Utah's authority to enforce its gambling laws on August 5, and the Ohio Casino Control Commission has levied a $5 million fine. Federal courts remain split, with the Third Circuit holding in April 2026 that CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts is likely exclusive. This market assesses whether a state that has not yet acted joins the group before September 15, 2026.
Conditions
Resolves YES if, between the publication of this market and 23:59 UTC on September 15, 2026, the attorney general, gaming regulator or other executive authority of a US state not named below files a lawsuit against, issues a cease-and-desist order to, or imposes a monetary penalty on KalshiEx LLC or Polymarket, confirmed by an official statement from that authority or by reporting from Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg or CNBC. The following states have already acted and are excluded: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin. Resolves NO otherwise. Legislative bills, opened investigations without a formal order, statements or letters by individual officials, actions by tribal governments, private class actions and municipal lawsuits do not count.
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