Will the Tenth Circuit grant Kalshi an injunction pending appeal in the Utah case before September 10, 2026?
On August 5, 2026 a federal judge entered final judgment holding that Utah may apply its gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, the first final federal ruling of its kind against the platform. Kalshi appealed the same day and asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit to bar Utah officials from enforcement while the appeal proceeds. Utah's attorney general filed its opposition on August 11, 2026, arguing Kalshi had shown neither likely success nor irreparable harm. As of August 17, 2026 the court has not ruled. This market assesses whether the appellate court shields Kalshi from Utah enforcement before September 10, 2026.
Conditions
Resolves YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC on September 10, 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit enters an order granting Kalshi an injunction or stay pending appeal that bars Utah officials from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi, in whole or in part, as recorded on the court's docket. Resolves NO if the motion is denied, withdrawn or dismissed as moot, or if no such order is entered by that time. Temporary administrative stays entered only to give the court time to consider the motion do not count. Orders by the district court or by any other court, and settlements between the parties, do not count.
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