Will Russia allow banks to issue crypto-backed loans at scale in 2026?
Event ended
92%
8%
Sberbank has completed a pilot loan to crypto miner Intelion Data, using self-mined cryptocurrency as collateral secured via a proprietary custody solution, marking one of the first real tests of crypto-backed lending within Russia’s banking system. This forecast assesses whether the pilot evolves into a formally regulated and widely available financial product.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before April 30, 2026, Russian regulators or major state-aligned banks (including Sber) officially approve, launch, or publicly confirm a standardized framework for crypto-backed lending, as evidenced by regulatory guidance from the Central Bank of Russia, enacted legal amendments, or official bank product announcements. Otherwise — No.
Results
As of April 30, 2026, Russian banks such as Sberbank and Sovcombank have conducted pilot crypto-backed loans and launched initial programs for corporate clients and miners, but there is no evidence of issuance at scale. Full regulatory framework is pending implementation on July 1, 2026.<grok:render type="render_inline_citation">
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