Will Kazakhstan's September 2026 crude output be at least 1.90 million barrels per day?
Kazakhstan's OPEC+ required crude production level was 1.608 million bpd in July 2026, and the country has produced above its quota for most of the past two years. In July 2026 the halt at the CPC marine terminal cut total liquids output from an average of about 2.07 million bpd to about 1.63 million bpd, with Tengiz falling to roughly 406,000 bpd from about 925,000 bpd. CPC loadings resumed on 27 July 2026. This market assesses whether September crude output reaches at least 1.90 million bpd.
Conditions
Resolves Yes if OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report states Kazakhstan's crude oil production for September 2026 at 1.90 million barrels per day or higher in the crude oil production table based on secondary sources. The first MOMR issue containing September 2026 figures is used; later revisions do not change the resolution. Figures for condensate, natural gas liquids, total liquids, direct communication figures, and estimates published by the IEA, EIA, Reuters, Argus or Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy do not count. Resolves No if the figure is below 1.90 million bpd, or if no MOMR containing September 2026 figures is published by 31 October 2026 23:59 UTC.
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