
Will Kazakhstan become a legal venue for Russia’s fight over frozen assets by mid-2026?
Russia’s Central Bank has filed a ₽18 trillion lawsuit against Belgium-based depository Euroclear over frozen Russian assets, escalating what analysts describe as a growing legal and financial confrontation with the West. According to Reuters and regional experts, Moscow may seek to enforce favorable court rulings through “friendly jurisdictions” — potentially including Kazakhstan. Legal specialists suggest that if Russian courts rule against Euroclear, the Central Bank of Russia could attempt to pursue asset claims or enforcement actions in countries with closer political and legal ties to Moscow, such as Kazakhstan, the UAE, China, or Hong Kong. This forecast evaluates whether Kazakhstan becomes directly involved as a jurisdiction in Russia’s efforts to recover or contest frozen sovereign assets.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before June 30, 2026, credible reporting or official court records confirm that Russian authorities initiate legal or enforcement proceedings in Kazakhstan aimed at recovering or enforcing claims related to frozen assets held by Euroclear, as verified by sources such as Reuters, RBC, Kommersant, or official Kazakh judicial statements. Otherwise — NO.
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