
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by the end of February, 2026?
Geopolitical signals remain mixed as the war continues into another year. While diplomats report ongoing back-channel talks and mediators call for a pause, neither side has shifted its core demands: Russia seeks recognition of current territorial control, while Ukraine insists on full sovereignty and security guarantees.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if Russia and Ukraine officially announce a mutually acknowledged ceasefire on or before February, 28, 2026, confirmed by both governments, an international mediator, or major global media. Otherwise — NO.
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