Will the seven OPEC+ countries announce a further production increase before 1 November 2026?
On 2 August 2026 Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed a production adjustment of 188,000 bpd to be implemented in September 2026, and set their next meeting for 6 September 2026. Reporting ahead of that decision indicated the group is expected to pause further increases for the rest of the year. Kazakhstan's required level was 1.608 million bpd in July 2026. This market assesses whether the group announces another increase before 1 November 2026.
Conditions
Resolves Yes if, between the publication of this market and 31 October 2026 23:59 UTC, an official press release published on opec.org states that the seven participating countries have decided to implement a production adjustment that raises their required production levels for October 2026 or any later month. Resolves No otherwise. A decision to keep required levels unchanged, a decision to reduce them, compensation schedules, statements by individual ministers, decisions taken by OPEC members outside these seven countries, and news reports citing unnamed sources do not count — only a press release published on opec.org.
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