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Search event

Will Russia and Ukraine officially announce a ceasefire on aerial strikes of at least 30 days before November 30, 2026?

60%
40%

Ukrainian and US officials have discussed a proposal to halt aerial attacks as part of a renewed effort to revive peace negotiations, and the Kremlin has said it is premature to comment. Truces agreed earlier in 2026 lasted between 32 hours and three days. This market evaluates whether a ceasefire covering aerial strikes of at least 30 days will be officially announced by both governments.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves "Yes" if, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, both the Russian Presidential Executive Office (kremlin.ru) and the Office of the President of Ukraine (president.gov.ua) publish official statements confirming an agreed ceasefire covering aerial strikes with a stated duration of 30 days or longer. Media reports, third-party announcements, statements of intent, and unilateral declarations do not qualify. Otherwise — "No".

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