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Search event

Will Kazakhstan remain a key hub for regional FX flows in 2026?

25%
75%

Data from National Bank of Kazakhstan show that in December 2025, Kazakhstan’s banks handled record OTC FX volumes, with USD/KZT trades surging to ~$38bn in purchases and ~$38bn in sales—4–5× above recent norms. The spike was driven largely by transactions with non-resident banks, alongside sustained elevated activity in EUR/KZT, RUB/KZT, and rising CNY flows, pointing to Kazakhstan’s growing role in regional financial rerouting amid sanctions and changing settlement mechanisms. Activity on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange also reflects this shift. The question is whether this surge proves structural or fades.

Finance
Kazakhstan

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by June 30, 2026, official statistics or major international reporting confirm continued elevated FX activity—defined as monthly OTC USD/KZT volumes averaging ≥$20bn (or sustained multi-currency surges involving EUR/RUB/CNY) driven by non-resident counterparties. Otherwise — No.

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