Will Kazakhstan face a prolonged decline in real incomes in 2026?

Economist Aidarkhan Kusainov warns that Kazakhstan is entering 2026 with a structural income crisis, marked by falling real wages, weakened consumer demand, and gradual erosion of living standards. He argues that the economy has effectively been in crisis since 2020, masked by stimulus and post-COVID spending, with households increasingly shifting to cheaper goods and more precarious forms of employment. Unlike the sharp shock of 2008, Kusainov describes the current downturn as slow and persistent, driven by declining purchasing power, labor market adjustments, and prolonged stagnation in real incomes—raising concerns about whether 2026 will deepen this trend.