Will Russia legalize or regulate private militias (like Wagner) officially by end‑2025?
Event ended
21%
79%
Russia’s use of private military groups remains largely unofficial. This market tracks whether any legal framework will be introduced to formally regulate or authorize such organizations.
Conditions
Resolves to 'Yes' if by December 31, 2025, an official legal act (law, presidential decree, or formal government regulation) is passed that legalizes or explicitly regulates private military companies in Russia. Otherwise, resolves to 'No'.
Results
By December 31, 2025, no official legal act (law, presidential decree, or government regulation) had been adopted in Russia that legalized or explicitly regulated private military companies. Therefore, the market condition was not met.
Comments