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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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Will Russia legalize or regulate private militias (like Wagner) officially by end‑2025?

21%

79%

Russia’s use of private military groups remains largely unofficial. This market tracks whether any legal framework will be introduced to formally regulate or authorize such organizations.

Politics

Conditions

Resolves to 'Yes' if by December 31, 2025, an official legal act (law, presidential decree, or formal government regulation) is passed that legalizes or explicitly regulates private military companies in Russia. Otherwise, resolves to 'No'.

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