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Search event

Will the US and Iran officially sign a ceasefire agreement before July 1, 2026?

60%
40%

US-Iran negotiations have reached an advanced stage, with many core issues reportedly close to resolution. However, both sides have publicly stated that a final agreement has not been reached, with Iran's Supreme Leader introducing new conditions and no timeline confirmed for signing.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves "Yes" if the US and Iran formally sign and publicly announce a ceasefire or peace agreement — confirmed by official statements from both governments — on or before July 1, 2026, 23:59 UTC, as reported by Reuters, Bloomberg, or the Associated Press. A framework declaration, preliminary memorandum, or unilateral announcement does not satisfy this condition. Otherwise — "No".

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