Step 1
Choose Where You Stand
Select an event from politics, economics, technology, sports, or culture.

Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

You can place your prediction only once and in one direction.
Step 2
Confirm Your Entry
Select your stake — from 1 to 100 USDC.

To participate, simply register and top up your balance with USDC — a stable digital currency pegged to the US dollar.

Once the event begins or concludes, predictions are automatically closed.
Step 3
Get Your Reward
After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

All submitted predictions form a shared pool.

A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will Iran actually mine the Persian Gulf shipping routes?

33%
67%

Iran has threatened to mine key maritime routes if the United States launches a ground operation — a move that could put up to 20% of global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz at risk and trigger a major market shock. However, this is a trigger-based scenario, not an immediate action. Full mining would likely lead to direct military escalation and broader regional conflict. Most likely, Iran will continue limited pressure tactics rather than take such an extreme step — unless the war significantly escalates.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by June 30, 2026, there is confirmed evidence that Iran has: deployed naval mines in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz, AND caused verified disruption or damage to commercial or military vessels due to those mines. Otherwise — “No.”

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