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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will the United States attempt to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub?

25%
75%

Amid escalating conflict, Donald Trump has openly floated the idea of taking control of Kharg Island — a critical facility responsible for a large share of Iran’s oil exports. The proposal comes as the United States Central Command increases troop deployments in the region, and tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz. However, such a move would represent a major escalation, potentially triggering: - Direct ground confrontation with Iran - Regional retaliation across Gulf states - Severe disruption to global energy markets Iranian officials have already warned of attacks on U.S. forces and allied infrastructure if such an اقدام occurs. While discussed internally, an actual attempt to seize and hold the island would require significant military commitment and political consensus, making it highly uncertain.

Geopolitics

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by July 31, 2026, the United States initiates a direct military operation to seize or establish control over Kharg Island, confirmed by official statements or major international reporting. Otherwise — “No.”

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