Step 1
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Select an event from politics, economics, technology, sports, or culture.

Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

You can place your prediction only once and in one direction.
Step 2
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Select your stake — from 1 to 100 USDC.

To participate, simply register and top up your balance with USDC — a stable digital currency pegged to the US dollar.

Once the event begins or concludes, predictions are automatically closed.
Step 3
Get Your Reward
After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

All submitted predictions form a shared pool.

A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.
Search event

Will OpenAI continue to significantly drain engineering talent from Apple?

60%
40%

Tensions are rising inside Apple as dozens of engineers reportedly leave for OpenAI, attracted by lucrative compensation packages and the growing influence of AI. The hiring push is led in part by former Apple designer Evans Hankey, with recruitment targeting teams behind key products like iPhone and Apple Vision Pro. Apple is attempting to retain talent through substantial bonuses, but OpenAI’s offers — including equity packages worth millions — may prove more compelling. The key uncertainty is whether this trend becomes a sustained talent shift, potentially impacting Apple’s long-term innovation capacity.

Technology

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by July 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that at least 100 engineers or technical staff have moved from Apple to OpenAI since January 2025, or that Apple publicly acknowledges a significant talent outflow to OpenAI. Otherwise — “No.”

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