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Search event

Will OpenAI release a model capable of real-time AI video generation before December 31 2026?

40%
60%

Real-time AI video generation — the ability to produce fully synthesized video output interactively and without multi-minute rendering delays — represents a significant frontier in generative AI. While models such as Sora have demonstrated video generation capabilities, real-time interactive video output at production quality remains an open challenge. This market asks whether OpenAI will officially release a model or product with confirmed real-time video generation capability before the end of 2026.

Technology

Conditions

Resolves "Yes" if OpenAI makes an official announcement and releases — via OpenAI.com or official product channels — a model or product explicitly described as capable of real-time AI video generation, before December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC. The product must be officially released (not research-only or waitlist). Otherwise — "No".

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