Will China invade Taiwan by mid-2026?
Event ended
25%
75%
Tensions across the Taiwan Strait remain elevated as Beijing continues large-scale military drills, air and naval pressure, and increasingly forceful rhetoric around reunification. China maintains that Taiwan is an internal matter, while the U.S. and its allies continue arms sales, political support, and deterrence signaling — raising concerns about miscalculation.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if, on or before June 30, 2026, China launches a direct military invasion of Taiwan—such as amphibious landings, airborne assaults, or sustained kinetic operations to seize territory or overthrow the government—as confirmed by Reuters. Otherwise — NO.
Results
No invasion of Taiwan by China occurred by mid-2026; the situation remains tense but without military invasion.
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