Will the “Sell America” trade materially weaken U.S. assets by the end of 2026?
According to The New York Times, investors are increasingly rotating out of U.S. assets amid market volatility linked to Donald Trump’s economic policies, particularly tariffs. The emerging “Sell America” strategy gained traction after trade measures triggered sharp declines in U.S. stocks and bonds, pressured the dollar, and boosted demand for gold and other hedges. In January 2026 alone, gold rose more than 15%, reflecting persistent demand for protection against policy and fiscal risk.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, U.S. assets show a sustained “Sell America” outcome — defined as (a) the U.S. dollar index down at least 10% year-over-year and (b) gold prices up at least 20% from January 2026 levels, as reported by major financial data providers or outlets such as NYT, Bloomberg, or Reuters. Otherwise — “No.”
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