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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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Will “Strategy” be added to the S&P 500?

Event ended
29%
71%

Analysts at “Stephens”, cited by CNBC, point to “Strategy” as a leading candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 ahead of the next rebalancing by S&P Dow Jones Indices. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, “Strategy” stands out by size and profile, making it one of the most closely watched names. Inclusion in the index typically triggers forced buying by index-tracking funds, a dynamic that has often driven short-term gains in newly added stocks.

Cryptocurrency
Finance
Markets

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by January 31, 2026, following the January 2026 S&P 500 rebalancing, “Strategy” is officially added to the S&P 500 index, as confirmed by S&P Dow Jones Indices or reported by major financial media (e.g. CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ). Otherwise — No.

Results

By January 31, 2026, Strategy had not been officially added to the S&P 500 index, as confirmed by S&P Dow Jones Indices and major financial media. Therefore, the market condition was not met.

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