Will Russian–Chinese trade continue to decline in 2026?

Official data show that trade turnover between Russia and China fell by 6.9% over the past year, with China reducing purchases of Russian oil, coal, and petroleum products, while exports of Chinese goods to Russia also declined by more than 10%. Russian officials attribute the slowdown to market saturation and partial sanctions pressure, while emphasizing that bilateral cooperation remains resilient. However, some Russian industrial leaders argue that dependence on Chinese equipment—reportedly accounting for more than half of technological imports—creates structural vulnerability. Analysts also note that Russia’s share in China’s total exports has declined to around 2.7%, signaling reduced relative importance. The key uncertainty is whether this contraction represents a temporary adjustment or the start of a sustained downward trend in trade volumes.