Will Russian oil deliveries to Cuba continue despite US pressure?

The arrival of the tanker “Anatoly Kolodkin” marks a notable moment as the first confirmed delivery of Russian oil to Cuba since new U.S. energy restrictions, while Donald Trump signaled temporary flexibility, suggesting this is more an exception than a policy shift. The situation now hinges on whether the United States tightens enforcement after licenses expire, ongoing backchannel talks with Russia, and Cuba’s worsening energy needs. Most likely, limited deliveries may continue in the short term, but large-scale, stable supply remains uncertain under geopolitical pressure.