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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

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Step 2
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Once the event begins or concludes, predictions are automatically closed.
Step 3
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After the event ends, the system determines the correct outcome.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will Lukoil exit its Kazakhstan assets by the U.S. deadline?

Event ended
56%
44%

Under U.S. sanctions imposed in October, Lukoil has been ordered to sell its international asset portfolio — valued at roughly $22 billion — by January 17, 2026, according to Reuters. The package includes significant stakes in Kazakhstan, such as 5% in Tengiz, 13.5% in Karachaganak, full ownership of Lukoil Lubricants Central Asia, and 50% stakes in several offshore projects with KazMunayGas. Potential buyers reportedly include Carlyle, a Chevron–Quantum Capital Group consortium, and International Holding Company, with interest also from ExxonMobil and ADNOC. Any deal requires approval from OFAC, which has already blocked two prior attempts.

Economics
Kazakhstan
Markets

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by February 28, 2026, Lukoil completes a sale or secures OFAC-approved binding agreements to divest its Kazakhstan assets (including Tengiz/Karachaganak stakes), confirmed by company disclosures or major international media. Otherwise — No.

Results

By February 28, 2026, Lukoil had neither completed the sale of its Kazakhstan assets nor secured an OFAC-approved binding divestment agreement. Therefore, the market condition was not met.

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