Will bond defaults in Russia exceed 2025 levels in 2026?

Analysts warn that bond defaults in 2026 may surpass the record levels of 2025, driven by a sharp rise in refinancing pressure and persistently high funding costs. Planned bond maturities are expected to jump by more than 80% year over year, reaching roughly ₽4 trillion, forcing many issuers to refinance in an environment where interest rates remain elevated and banks have tightened credit limits. The risk is concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses, especially issuers of high-yield bonds with weak credit ratings. Market experts note that banks — the main buyers of corporate bonds — cut risk exposure in late 2025, reducing demand for new issues and making rollovers harder. As cheaper pre-2023 debt matures, companies are increasingly left with expensive liabilities, raising the likelihood that liquidity stress turns into defaults.