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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Will the U.S. impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods over a Canada–China trade deal?

75%
25%

Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada moves ahead with a trade deal with China, saying Washington will not allow Canada to become a transit route for Chinese exports. The remarks come after renewed Canada–China engagement following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing and plans to expand economic cooperation. The threat heightens pressure on Canada as U.S.–China tensions deepen, forcing Ottawa to balance trade diversification against access to the U.S. market. While such tariffs would be highly disruptive and face legal and political hurdles, Trump has often used tariff threats as leverage—leaving open the question of whether this warning becomes policy if Canada formalizes a deal with China.

Economics
Geopolitics
Markets

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by June 30, 2026, the U.S. formally enacts a 100% tariff on all or substantially all Canadian goods explicitly citing a Canada–China trade agreement as justification, as confirmed by official U.S. government notices (USTR, White House) or major outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg). Otherwise — “No.”

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